Scenario Modeling

Scenarios allow you to simulate changes to your operations and compare their impact on your biodiversity footprint. Use scenarios to evaluate strategies before implementing them.

What is a Scenario?

A scenario is a "what-if" version of your assessment that models:

• Changes to suppliers or sourcing
• New production processes
• Alternative materials
• Geographic relocations
• Efficiency improvements

Create a Scenario

Scenario Variants

Within a scenario, you can create variants - alternative configurations for specific entities:

Create a Variant

1. Open your scenario
2. Click Add Variant
3. Select the entity to modify
4. Choose the type of change:
   • Alternative supplier: Different sourcing
   • Alternative process: Different production method
   • Alternative location: Geographic change

Modify Data Points

For each variant, you can:

• Add new data points
• Modify existing values
• Remove data points
• Change process matching

Compare Scenarios

Darwin provides side-by-side comparison of scenarios:

Access Comparison View

1. From the scenario list, select scenarios to compare
2. Click Compare
3. View the comparison dashboard

Comparison Metrics

The comparison shows:

Visual Comparison

Charts display:

• Bar charts: Side-by-side totals
• Waterfall charts: Change breakdown
• Spider charts: Multi-dimensional comparison

Scenario Use Cases

Supplier Switch

Question: What if we switch from conventional to RSPO-certified palm oil?

Steps:

1. Create scenario "RSPO Palm Oil"
2. Add variant for palm oil supplier
3. Change process to "Palm Oil RSPO SG"
4. Compare land use and ecosystem impacts

Production Efficiency

Question: What if we reduce water consumption by 20%?

Steps:

1. Create scenario "Water Efficiency 2025"
2. Add variant for factory sites
3. Reduce water consumption values by 20%
4. Compare water use pressure impacts

Geographic Relocation

Question: What if we source from a different region?

Steps:

1. Create scenario "Alternative Sourcing"
2. Add variant changing supplier location
3. Update transport distances
4. Compare total footprint and logistics impacts

Managing Scenarios

Clone a Scenario

To create a copy:

1. Open the scenario
2. Click Clone
3. Modify the copy as needed

Archive a Scenario

To remove from active view:

1. Open the scenario
2. Click Archive
3. Restore later if needed

Delete a Scenario

Permanently remove:

1. Open the scenario
2. Click Delete
3. Confirm (cannot be undone)

Best Practices

1. Name Clearly: Use descriptive names that explain the change
2. Document Assumptions: Note what's being modeled in the description
3. Compare to Baseline: Always include your current state in comparisons
4. Focus on Key Changes: Model one significant change per scenario initially
5. Validate Results: Check that changes align with expected outcomes

Scenario Reporting

Export scenario comparisons for presentations:

1. Open the comparison view
2. Click Export
3. Choose format:
   • PDF: Full report with charts
   • Excel: Raw data for analysis
   • PowerPoint: Presentation-ready slides

Integration with Strategy

Use scenario insights to inform:

• Target Setting: Set achievable reduction goals
• Action Planning: Prioritize high-impact interventions
• Budget Allocation: Focus resources on effective changes
• Reporting: TNFD and CSRD scenario analysis requirements